Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-09-29 15.292138 17.800569 20.540834 23.749895 27.397875 31.408609 36.144624
2024-10-06 12.078510 15.695119 20.033730 25.588725 32.475501 40.693454 51.198802
2024-10-13 9.487199 13.572623 18.886211 26.223110 35.997171 48.464289 65.445528
2024-10-20 7.613699 11.863565 17.797518 26.542708 38.925755 55.624609 79.589767
2024-10-27 6.247357 10.516274 16.867687 26.781668 41.583834 62.520095 93.926195
2024-11-03 5.625992 10.120742 17.180003 28.744352 46.787541 73.327092 114.597141
2024-11-10 4.978792 9.538638 17.073858 29.984796 50.960551 82.932884 134.292028
2024-11-17 4.414141 8.975932 16.882886 31.007346 54.823605 92.322903 154.354195
2024-11-24 3.741407 8.084239 15.983840 30.696143 56.434349 98.272718 169.491596
2024-12-01 3.078952 7.077648 14.714904 29.544657 56.452581 101.584239 180.585127
2024-12-08 2.566449 6.264719 13.667628 28.625080 56.715432 105.232099 192.392477
2024-12-15 2.256887 5.816232 13.247175 28.800470 58.908660 112.259900 210.291964
2024-12-22 1.949688 5.325677 12.696570 28.709105 60.704741 118.929507 228.438207
2024-12-29 1.820584 5.228124 12.957502 30.285569 65.843188 132.001289 258.857743
2025-01-05 1.623308 4.921170 12.715291 30.784767 68.922683 141.557216 283.677341
2025-01-12 1.437254 4.601023 12.390745 31.059366 71.566100 150.488652 307.973592
2025-01-19 1.274129 4.304507 12.071644 31.297004 74.140470 159.460800 332.935996
2025-01-26 1.237323 4.357991 12.607223 33.534959 81.125428 177.474187 376.151569
2025-02-02 1.159578 4.273377 12.783439 34.951077 86.461490 192.588339 414.715957
2025-02-09 1.077061 4.155270 12.854472 36.120253 91.352841 207.132687 453.044428
2025-02-16 0.941406 3.832974 12.330561 35.762729 92.780415 214.694825 478.009683
2025-02-23 0.790102 3.415712 11.471870 34.442730 91.857621 217.279497 493.096576
2025-03-02 0.669698 3.071097 10.755835 33.388202 91.432829 220.850025 510.370571